Want What the Market Want's

and

Get What YOU Want!!!!

This is simple but is still complicated to understand the deeper meaning.

What does a trader want ??

 gains!!

Understanding the meaning of this statement will lead a trader to his goal

Markets are setup in such a way that you loose your investment.

A professional trader understand the market and thus is a winner

In this market money does flow :

from where???

From a person who does not know what he is doing.

To a person who knows what he is doing.

A traders who knows how to react to a market reaction is always in tune with the market and thus his goal....

Market Outlook for 25-2-2013 to 1-3-2013

Local stock indices are seen taking cues from key events lined up next week, with the focus primarily on the Union Budget for 2013-14 (Apr-Mar), which is due to be presented on Thursday. Expiry of the February derivatives contract, also due on Thursday, may ensure volatility in the days ahead as traders decide on rolling over their positions to the next month series. In case the budget disappoints, it is expected that the Nifty may correct downwards to 5750/5650 levels though immediate support remains at 5800. Yesterday, the National Stock Exchange's 50-share Nifty ended flat at 5850.30, down 1.95 points from close Thursday. Intraday, it touched a low of 5835.80 points. The BSE's 30-stock Sensex ended at 19317.01, down 8.35 points, after having touched a low of 19289.83 intraday. Railrelated stocks may be in the limelight early next week as the Railway Budget for 2013-14 is due on Tuesday. This will be followed by the Economic Survey for 2012-13 on Wednesday, and then the Union Budget on Thursday.

50 fortunate truth about investing

50 fortunate truth about investing

1. Saying "I'll be greedy when others are fearful" is much easier than actually doing it.
2. The gulf between a great company and a great investment can be extraordinary.

3. Markets go through at least one big pullback every year, and one massive one every decade. Get used to it. It's just what they do.

4. There is virtually no accountability in the financial pundit arena. People who have been wrong about everything for years still draw crowds.

5. As Erik Falkenstein says: "In expert tennis, 80% of the points are won, while in amateur tennis, 80% are lost. The same is true for wrestling, chess, and investing: Beginners should focus on avoiding mistakes, experts on making great moves."

6. There are tens of thousands of professional money managers. Statistically, a handful of them have been successful by pure chance. Which ones? I don't know, but I bet a few are famous.

7. On that note, some investors who we call "legendary" have barely, if at all, beaten an index fund over their careers. On Wall Street, big wealth isn't indicative of big returns.

8. During recessions, elections, and Federal Reserve policy meetings, people become unshakably certain about things they know nothing about.

9. The more comfortable an investment feels, the more likely you are to be slaughtered.

10. Time-saving tip: Instead of trading penny stocks, just light your money on fire. Same for leveraged ETFs.

11. Not a single person in the world knows what the market will do in the short run. End of story.

12. The analyst who talks about his mistakes is the guy you want to listen to. Avoid the guy who doesn't -- his are much bigger.

13. You don't understand a big bank's balance sheet. The people running the place and their accountants don't, either.

14. There will be seven to 10 recessions over the next 50 years. Don't act surprised when they come.

15. Thirty years ago, there was one hour of market TV per day. Today there's upwards of 18 hours. What changed isn't the volume of news, but the volume of drivel.

16. Warren Buffett's best returns were achieved when markets were much less competitive. It's doubtful anyone will ever match his 50-year record.

17. Most of what is taught about investing in school is theoretical nonsense. There are very few rich professors.

18. The more someone is on TV, the less likely his or her predictions are to come true. (U.C. Berkeley psychologist Phil Tetlock has data on this).

19. Related: Trust no one who is on CNBC more than twice a week.

20. The market doesn't care how much you paid for a stock. Or your house. Or what you think is a "fair" price.

21. The majority of market news is not only useless, but also harmful to your financial health.

22. Professional investors have better information and faster computers than you do. You will never beat them short-term trading. Don't even try.

23. How much experience a money manager has doesn't tell you much. You can underperform the market for an entire career. And many have.

24. The decline of trading costs is one of the worst things to happen to investors, as it made frequent trading possible. High transaction costs used to cause people to think hard before they acted.

25. Professional investing is one of the hardest careers to succeed at, but it has low barriers to entry and requires no credentials. That creates legions of "experts" who have no idea what they are doing. People forget this because it doesn't apply to many other fields.

26. Most IPOs will burn you. People with more information than you have want to sell. Think about that.

27. When someone mentions charts, moving averages, head-and-shoulders patterns, or resistance levels, walk away.

28. The phrase "double-dip recession" was mentioned 10.8 million times in 2010 and 2011, according to Google. It never came. There were virtually no mentions of "financial collapse" in 2006 and 2007. It did come.

29. The real interest rate on 20-year Treasuries is negative, and investors are plowing money into them. Fear can be a much stronger force than arithmetic.

30. The book Where Are the Customers' Yachts? was written in 1940, and most still haven't figured out that financial advisors don't have their best interest at heart.

31. The low-cost index fund is one of the most useful financial inventions in history. Boring but beautiful.

32. The best investors in the world have more of an edge in psychology than in finance.

33. What markets do day to day is overwhelmingly driven by random chance. Ascribing explanations to short-term moves is like trying to explain lottery numbers.

34. For most, finding ways to save more money is more important than finding great investments.

35. If you have credit card debt and are thinking about investing in anything, stop. You will never beat 30% annual interest.

36. A large portion of share buybacks are just offsetting shares issued to management as compensation. Managers still tout the buybacks as "returning money to shareholders."

37. The odds that at least one well-known company is insolvent and hiding behind fraudulent accounting are high.

38. Twenty years from now the S&P 500 (INDEX: ^GSPC ) will look nothing like it does today. Companies die and new ones emerge.

39. Twelve years ago General Motors (NYSE: GM ) was on top of the world and Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL ) was laughed at. A similar shift will occur over the next decade, but no one knows to what companies.

40. Most would be better off if they stopped obsessing about Congress, the Federal Reserve, and the president and focused on their own financial mismanagement.

41. For many, a house is a large liability masquerading as a safe asset.

42. The president has much less influence over the economy than people think.

43. However much money you think you'll need for retirement, double it. Now you're closer to reality.

44. The next recession is never like the last one.

45. Remember what Buffett says about progress: "First come the innovators, then come the imitators, then come the idiots."

46. And what Mark Twain says about truth: "A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth is putting on its shoes."

47. And what Marty Whitman says about information: "Rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise."

48. The bigger a merger is, the higher the odds it will be a flop. CEOs love empire-building by overpaying for companies.

49. Investments that offer little upside and big downside outnumber those with the opposite characteristics at least 10-to-1.

50. The most boring companies -- toothpaste, food, bolts -- can make some of the best long-term investments. The most innovative, some of the worst.

Carbon Credits

CARBON CREDITS – A MARKET OF THE 21st CENTURY With growing concerns among nations to curb pollution levels while maintaining the growth in their economic activities, the emission trading (ET) industry has come to life. And, with the increasing ratification of Kyoto Protocol (KP) by countries and rising social accountability of polluting industries in the developed nations, the carbon emissions trading is likely to emerge as a multibillion-dollar market in global emissions trading. The recent surge in carbon credits trading activities in Europe is an indication of how the emissions trading industry is going to pan out in the years to come.   What is a carbon credit? Simply put, one carbon credit is equivalent to one tonne of carbon dioxide or its equivalent greenhouse gas (GHG). Carbon credits are “Entitlement Certificates” issued by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to the implementers of the approved Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. The potential buyers of carbon credits shall be corporates in various Annexure I countries that need to meet the compliance prevailing in their countries as per the Kyoto Protocol or those investors who would like buy the credits and with the expectation of selling them at a higher price during the KP phase (2008-12). The extension of KP shall be ratified by the current signatories of KP in their future meetings essentially to curb GHG emissions into the environment.   Sources of demand & supply Emerging carbon credit markets offer enormous opportunities for the upcoming manufacturing/public utility projects to employ a range of energy saving devices or any other mechanisms or technology to reduce GHG emissions and earn carbon credits to be sold at a price. The carbon credits can be either generated by project participants who acquire carbon credits through implementation of CDM in Non Annexure I countries or through Joint Implementation (JI) in Annexure I countries or supplied into the market by those who got surplus allowances with them. The buyers of carbon credits are principally from Annexure I countries. They are:          Especially European nations, as currently European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the most active market;          Other markets include Japan, Canada, New Zealand, etc. The major sources of supply are Non-Annexure I countries such as India, China, and Brazil.   Trading In Carbon Credits Emissions trading (ET) is a mechanism that enables countries with legally binding emissions targets to buy and sell emissions allowances among themselves. Currently, futures contracts in carbon credits are actively traded in the European exchanges. In fact, many companies actively participate in the futures market to manage the price risks associated with trading in carbon credits and other related risks such as project risk, policy risk, etc. Keeping in view the various risks associated with carbon credits, trading in futures contracts in carbon allowances has now become a reality in Europe with burgeoning volumes. Currently, project participants, public utilities, manufacturing entities, brokers, banks, and others actively participate in futures trading in environment-related instruments.   Price influencing factors In Non-Annexure B countries (the developing countries) across the world, CER prices are influenced by various factors including EUA prices, crude oil prices, electricity, coal, natural gas, the level of economic activities across Annexure I countries, among others   Some of the major price influencing factors:          Supply-demand mismatch          Policy issues          Crude oil prices          Coal prices          CO2 emissions          Weather/Fuel prices          European Union Allowances (EUAs) prices          Foreign exchange fluctuations          Global economic growth   Risks associated with carbon credits There are market- and policy-related risks for CER producers, including the supply-side risks starting from the DNA approval risk to the CER issuance risk in a complete CDM approval cycle. Apart from these risks there are a host of other risks from both the supply and demand sides that the real market players confront with. Most CDM projects by their very nature take a long time to generate the CERs and hence, face the aforesaid risks in large proportion, which if not hedged would lead to reduced realization. Under such a situation, the realization of CER generators at times may not even cover the investment put in to generate the CERs and thus, has the potential of even making a CDM project unviable in the long term. Given the long gestation period of CDM projects and the risks involved, it is rather inevitable that they pre-sell their potential credits in the futures market (preferably a domestic futures market, to avoid forex risk attached to participation in a foreign exchange) and thereby, cover their probable downside in the physical market.   Potential participants in carbon credits trading are as below Hedgers          Producers          Intermediaries in spot markets          Ultimate buyers Investors        Arbitragers        Portfolio managers Diverse participants with wide participation objectives        Commodity financers        Funding agencies        Corporates having risk exposure in energy products   India as a potential supplier India, being one of the leading generators of CERs through CDM, has a large scope in emissions trading. Analysts forecast that its trading in carbon credits would touch US$ 100 billion by 2010. Currently, the total registered CDM projects are more than 300, almost 1/3rd of the total CDM projects registered with the UNFCCC. The total issued CERs with India as a host country till now stand at 34,101,315 (around 34 million), again around 1/3rd of the total CERs issued by the UNFCCC. In value terms (INR), it could be running into thousands of crores. Further, there has been a surge in number of registered projects in India. In 2007, a total of 160 new projects were registered with the UNFCCC indicating that more than half of all registered projects in India happened last year. It is expected that with increasing awareness this would go further up in the future. The number of expected annual CERs in India is hovering around 28 million and considering that each of these CERs is sold for around 15 euros, on an average, the expected value is going to be around Rs 2,500 crore.   Various industries that have scope of generation of CERs:        Agriculture        Energy ( renewable & non-renewable sources)        Manufacturing        Fugitive emissions from fuels (solid, oil and gas)        Metal production        Mining and mineral production        Chemicals        Afforestation & reforestation   The role of MCX With MCX keen to play a major role on the emission front by extending its platform to add carbon credits to its existing basket of commodities with regard to commodities futures trading, the existing and potential suppliers of carbon credits in India have geared up to generate more carbon credits from their existing and ongoing projects to be sold in the international markets. With India supposed to be a major supplier of carbon credits, the tie-up between the two exchanges is expected to ensure better price discovery of carbon credits, besides covering risks associated with buying and selling.   Advantages of an MCX carbon contract In India, currently only bilateral deals and trading through intermediaries are widely prevalent leading to sellers being denied fair prices for their carbon credits. Advantages that the MCX platform offers are:        Sellers and intermediaries can hedge against price risk;        Advance selling could help projects generate liquidity and thereby, reduce costs of implementation;        There is no counterparty risk as the Exchange guarantees the trade;        The price discovery on the Exchange platform ensures a fair price for both the buyer and the seller;        Players are brought to a single platform, thus, eliminating the laborious process of identifying either buyers or sellers with enough credibility; and        The MCX futures floor gives an immediate reference price. At present, there is no transparency related to prices in the Indian carbon credit market, which has kept sellers at the receiving end with no bargaining power.

Dalal street..

Kick start

It is amazing way to express.....i started this blog to inform and guide what i learned in my past. feedback and replies appriciated.